Sector Update: Aviation; Apr-16 domestic passenger growth at 21% YoY

Motilal Oswal | June 14, 2012, midnight


Apr-16 domestic passenger growth at 21% YoY


Domestic load factor at 84%; IndiGo’s domestic ASK and RPK shares highest


-    India domestic passengers grew at 21% YoY in Apr-16 (vs 25% in Mar-16 and 22% in FY16) with 7.9m passengers.


-    While Apr-16 ASK growth was at 20% YoY (16% in FY16), RPK increased 21% YoY (22% in FY16).


-    Load factors stood at 84.1%in Apr-16 (compared to 82.9% in FY16).


Domestic air passenger growth at 21% YoY in Apr-16


-    India’s domestic passenger growth stood at 21% YoY with 7.9m passengers carried in Apr-16. Domestic passengers have increased at above 20% for last six months consecutively.


-    Jet Airways’s passenger volumes continued on the downward trajectory in Apr- 16, after marginal decline in Mar-16; passengers declined by 1.1% YoY. SpiceJet’s volumes grew at 44% YoY in Apr-16 (last 3 month avg of 71%), though the growth rate seems to be moderating due to consistently higher bases.


-    In Apr-16, passenger volumes for Indigo grew at 24% (+32% in Mar-16), GoAir at 18% (+19% in Mar-16) and Air India at 12% (+10% in Mar-16).


IndiGo’s passenger market share remains highest at ~39%


-    IndiGo continued to chip away passenger market share from others; market share increased to 38.8% in Apr-16 (vs 38.6% in Mar-16). Market share has exceeded 35% since Dec-14 and could cross its highest ever of 39.0% shortly.


-    Market share of other airlines marginally increased except Jet


   -   Jet’s share at 18.9% in Apr-16 (20.3% in Mar-16) has continued to decline.


   -   SpiceJet’s share stood at 12.9% in Apr-16 (12.8% in Mar-16).


   -   Air India’s share increased to 14.8% in Apr-16 (14.4% in Mar-16)


Domestic ASKs increased 20% YoY in Apr-16 (vs 16% in FY16)


-    SpiceJet’s domestic ASK grew at 37% due to low base last year (vs 51% in Mar- 16 and 63% in Feb-16).


-    IndiGo’s ASKs increased by 23% YoY, followed by Go Air’s growth of 8%.


-    While Jet’s ASKs grew at 6.6% YoY in Apr-16, ASKs declined on a monthly basis; at 7% excl. JetLite. Due to absence of increase in international ASKs we do not think that the decline was due to shift in capacity to international routes.


-    IndiGo’ domestic ASK share stood at its highest of 40.9%.


Domestic RPKs increased 21% YoY in Apr-16 (vs 22% in FY16)


-    SpiceJet’s domestic RPK grew at 44% YoY.


-    IndiGo’s RPK grew at 24% in Apr-16. Market share increased to 41.7% in Apr-16 (its previous highest, achieved last time in May-15).


-    Jet Airways’s RPKs increased by 2% in Apr-16 but declined monthly. Go Air’sRPK grew at 16%in Apr followed by Air India’s RPK growth at 9% in Apr-16.


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