Hindalco Ind: PAT falls due to lower other income in Q3
- Standalone PAT falls due to lower other income: Hindalco's (HNDL) standalone adjusted PAT for 3QFY12 declined 10% QoQ to Rs4.5b due to lower other income. EBITDA increased 7% QoQ to Rs7.15b due to 35% increase in copper EBITDA, while aluminum EBITDA declined 5% to Rs4.5b.
- Volumes up 13% QoQ: Both copper and aluminum volumes were up 13% each. Copper EBIT margins increased 12% QoQ to USc22.1/lb. EBIT increased 46% QoQ to Rs2.1b on higher TcRc charges and by-product credit despite high energy costs. According to our calculations, the cost of production (CoP) has declined 9% QoQ to USD1,786/ton for Aluminum largely due to depreciation of INR vs USD.
- Board approves warrants to promoters on preferential basis: 150m warrants have been allotted to the promoters as per Sebi formula, which works out at minimum of Rs150, i.e. average of last 2 weeks being higher than average of last 6 months. The equity dilution has taken us by surprise. The company has already incurred capex of Rs41.7b in 9MFY12. Capex target of USD2b now looks ambitious.
- Economic uncertainties hit Novelis' performance: Novelis reported adjusted EBITDA of USD213m, while volumes declined 9% YoY. Economic uncertainties affected demand and triggered destocking in Europe and Asia. We are cutting volumes by 284,000 tons to 3.2m tons and EBITDA per ton by USD10 to USD345 for FY13.
Outlook and Valuations: Consolidated EPS estimate for FY13 is cut down by 7% to INR19.5 largely due to lower guidance for Novelis. Stock is trading at 8.2x FY13E EPS and 1.4x FY13E BV (adjusted for goodwill) with RoE of 18.6%. Bulging CWIP is adversely affecting EV/EBITDA valuations. Adjusting for CWIP of Rs136b, stock is trading at 3.9x FY13E EV/EBITDA. We value the stock at SOTP-based price of Rs199. Maintain Buy.
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Motilal Oswal was founded in 1987 as a small sub-broking unit, with just two people running the show. Today it has a 2000 member team with a networth of Rs7 bn and market capitalization as of March 31, 2008 at Rs19 bn.
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- Short-term Technical Pick: Sell Hindalco Industries
- Q3FY15 results: Buy Hindalco for target price 173 and add on dips 132-139
- Hindalco Q3FY15: Improved top-line performance; Buy & add on dips
- Q3FY15: Hindalco misses street expectations on all counts
- Q3FY15: Investors recommended to buy Hindalco for a target of Rs170
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