What is the fair value of the Sensex?
|
Code |
STOCK |
CMP |
Weight |
ROCE |
Weighted ROCE |
|
|
500875 |
I T C LTD |
254.4 |
9.76 |
46.8 |
|
4.56768 |
|
500325 |
RELIANCE |
720.4 |
9.09 |
7.6 |
|
0.69084 |
|
500180 |
HDFC BANK LT |
584.25 |
7.71 |
22.7 |
ROE |
1.75017 |
|
532174 |
ICICI BANK L |
928.2 |
7.5 |
17.2 |
ROE |
1.29 |
|
500209 |
INFOSYS LTD |
2,148.85 |
7.35 |
29.4 |
|
2.1609 |
|
500010 |
HOUSING DEVE |
673.6 |
7.01 |
30.9 |
ROE |
2.16609 |
|
500510 |
LARSEN & TOU |
1,319.95 |
5.1 |
13.7 |
|
0.6987 |
|
532540 |
TCS LTD. |
1,225.75 |
5.04 |
39.6 |
|
1.99584 |
|
500312 |
ONG CORP LTD |
277.4 |
4.16 |
19.3 |
|
0.80288 |
|
500112 |
STATE BANK O |
1,941.20 |
3.65 |
15 |
ROE |
0.5475 |
|
500696 |
HIND UNI LT |
464.7 |
3.52 |
83.8 |
|
2.94976 |
|
532454 |
BHARTI ARTL |
307 |
2.86 |
12.3 |
|
0.35178 |
|
500570 |
TATA MOTORS |
212.8 |
2.83 |
24.8 |
|
0.70184 |
|
500520 |
MAHINDRA & M |
687.65 |
2.22 |
28.8 |
|
0.63936 |
|
500470 |
TATA STL |
399.3 |
1.9 |
11.4 |
|
0.2166 |
|
524715 |
SUN PHARMACE |
630.35 |
1.83 |
22.2 |
|
0.40626 |
|
532555 |
NTPC LTD |
153.05 |
1.77 |
8.9 |
|
0.15753 |
|
532977 |
BAJAJ AUTO |
1,582.05 |
1.6 |
59.2 |
|
0.9472 |
|
533278 |
COAL INDIA |
353.7 |
1.57 |
44.8 |
|
0.70336 |
|
500124 |
DR.REDDY'S L |
1,621.10 |
1.45 |
20.2 |
|
0.2929 |
|
507685 |
WIPRO LTD. |
334.25 |
1.44 |
21.8 |
|
0.31392 |
|
500182 |
HEROMOTOCO |
2,006.85 |
1.4 |
43.6 |
|
0.6104 |
|
500103 |
BHEL |
208.25 |
1.25 |
20.7 |
|
0.25875 |
|
532155 |
GAIL INDIA |
344.7 |
1.23 |
18.5 |
|
0.22755 |
|
500087 |
CIPLA LTD. |
326.55 |
1.19 |
18.5 |
|
0.22015 |
|
532286 |
JINDAL STEEL |
394.6 |
1.16 |
14.9 |
|
0.17284 |
|
532500 |
MARUTISUZUK |
1,110.65 |
1.12 |
21.4 |
|
0.23968 |
|
500440 |
HINDALCO IN |
117.45 |
1.11 |
8 |
|
0.0888 |
|
500400 |
TATA POWER |
94.6 |
1.1 |
5.4 |
|
0.0594 |
|
500900 |
STERLITE IN |
100.9 |
1.07 |
12.2 |
|
0.13054 |
|
ROCE=FY14E |
ROE=FY14E |
TOTAL |
26.35922 |
|||
|
Source:BSE,Brokerage Reports |
|
|
|
|
||
|
Value of the sensex |
V=100*(E/I)*SQRT((R+G)/(I+F)) |
|||||
|
E |
EPS of the sensex in FY14E |
=1437 |
(Source:Microsec Research) |
|||
|
I |
RFR |
|
8.11 |
|
|
|
|
R=1*SQRT(ROCE/I) |
|
1.803 |
|
|
|
|
|
100*(E/I) |
|
17719 |
|
|
|
|
|
G=Earnings Growth |
|
14 |
(Assumed) |
|
||
|
F=WPI |
|
|
7.6 |
|
|
|
|
SQRT((R+G)/(I+F)) |
|
1.003 |
|
|
|
|
|
Value of the sensex |
|
17771 |
|
|
|
|
Note : Manu Jain has assumed an earnings growth of 14% for the Sensex 30 companies going into FY14E
For Banks instead of ROCE's , ROE's have been taken
Data as on 27th July 2012 (CMP And Weightage)
Source of Formula for V: Vectorvest
Disclaimer: The author has taken due care and caution to compile and analyze the data. The recommendations are his/her personal views. He/she shall not accept any liability whatsoever arising from the use of any of the above content.
Sources have been mentioned at relevant places in the article. In spite of this, the author does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information.
The Author or his Family Members May be holding Positions in some of the stocks listed above.They May or May not do so at a Future Date.
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19th Jun 2013 | 12:20 pm
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